Limited Offers on the Supply Side, Spot Lead Ingot Trading Activity Slowly Increases [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,969.5/mt during the Asian session. Supported by the US dollar fluctuating downward, LME lead strengthened during the European session and finally closed at a high of $2,006.5/mt, up 1.88%, marking a two-day consecutive gain.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2503 contract opened at 17,050 yuan/mt, fluctuating rangebound around the intraday moving average after the opening, with a high of 17,105 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 17,085 yuan/mt, up 0.53%.

》Click to View SMM Lead Spot Historical Prices

Macro:

The US January ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.8, significantly below the expected 54.3 and the previous value of 54.1. The US January ADP employment figure recorded 183,000 , the highest since October last year, compared to the market expectation of 150,000. The Bank of England sold gold at a discount due to relatively delayed delivery. China's January Caixin Services PMI stood at 51, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest since October 2024 but still indicating expansion.

Spot Market Fundamentals:

In the Shanghai market, Honglu lead was quoted at 17,010-17,050 yuan/mt, with a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2503 contract. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, JCC lead was quoted at 16,960-17,050 yuan/mt, with a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2503 contract. Secondary refined lead suppliers offered limited quotes, with ex-factory prices ranging from a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Yesterday marked the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday, and SHFE lead saw a strong opening, directly surpassing the 17,000 yuan/mt threshold. However, downstream enterprises were either just resuming operations or had not yet restarted, resulting in limited market inquiries. Additionally, due to high lead prices, most operational downstream enterprises remained in a wait-and-see mode, leading to muted spot market transactions.

Inventory: On February 5, LME lead inventory increased by 300 mt to 221,175 mt, up 0.14%. As of January 27, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions stood at 39,200 mt, down 6,700 mt from January 20 but up approximately 100 mt from January 23.

》Click to View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

Lead Price Forecast Today:

With the holiday ending, the upstream and downstream of the lead industry chain are gradually resuming operations, and spot trading activity is increasing. Supply-side quotes remain limited, while downstream sentiment is cautious, with weak purchasing willingness. However, due to high market expectations for a recovery in consumption, lead prices are likely to fluctuate upward in the short term.